Sudan… A sudden decision by the military component puts the crisis back on track
After hope rose on the Sudanese streets with a near breakthrough in the political crisis the country has been enduring for nearly a year, despair crept back in and hopes for a solution faded.
The nearness of a solution to the crisis came with the declaration of the “Forces of Freedom and Change”, the civilian component, that within a few days a framework agreement would be concluded with the military component, which would provide for the complete transfer of power to civilians, but the hours of Joy was small as the latter ruled out signing a framework agreement with the Armed Forces of Freedom anytime soon.
Conflicting pronouncements by the parties to the Sudanese crisis have been taken by observers as indicating that steps towards a solution in Sudan have receded, if not back to zero, while warning against fragmenting the crisis and presenting it as a mere political squabble between civilians and military.
Sudan has been experiencing a broad political crisis since the decisions of Army Commander Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan on October 25, 2021, the most prominent of which was the dissolution of the Interim Council of Ministers and sovereignty, the dismissal of some governors, the arrest of officials and politicians and the proclamation of the state of emergency, which he saw as “corrective” steps for the country’s course while he opposed them. The civilian component, which called for protests that have not abated to this day.
The crisis is still there
Hours after the Forces of Freedom and Change announced that an agreement to end the crisis would soon be reached, the military component issued a statement ruling out signing a framework agreement with the Forces of Freedom anytime soon.
In the statement, released by many local and regional media outlets on Friday, he said, “Political consensus between the Sudanese components is a condition of signing the deal with the Forces for Freedom.”
This seems far-fetched given the rejection of the “resistance committees” who are leading the current movement on the streets, and other forces on the right and left.
Earlier on Friday, the Sudanese Forces for Freedom and Change announced that the framework agreement was expected to be signed before the end of next week.
She explained that after the signing of the agreement, the outstanding issues and observations of the transitional forces on the constitution will be discussed, including the transitional justice, the security and military reform process, and the peace process.
She stressed that a deadline had been set to reach a final agreement by the end of the year, noting that about 30 bodies have so far signed the political declaration that complements the interim constitution.
And last week, the tripartite mechanism, made up of the United Nations, the African Union and the IGAD group, said it had received notes from the army leadership, including their amendments and comments on the document, noting that such a movement reflects fundamental understandings between the civilian and military components over the draft, around which a large number of civilian forces rallied.
dr Fikria Aba Yazid Muhammad, Acting Director-General of the Sudan News Agency (SUNA), announced the imminent resolution of the crisis in press statements, in which she said: “The political crisis in the country is moving toward a resolution on indicators, according to everyone, and this matter is good now and represents a glimmer of hope.”
She added that we had not heard anything about the forthcoming deal in the past few months, but now there are many reports speaking of the forthcoming deal and this matter is a glimmer of hope for the parties to sit around the table after which Thinking in the beginning was “exclusion”, since each party wants or wants to exclude the other party, and the language of participation and dialogue is missing.
The crisis runs deep
I have followed these steps towards a good solution between the different parties in Sudan and I affirm that the diversity of parties, even within one component, is the basis of the problem that the country is now experiencing and if the problem is between civilians and only the military, solutions would have been found some time ago.
On the other hand, observers believe that declaring the military component stalls the crisis and brings it back to square one, leading Sudan to remain in the maelstrom it has been living in for months, in addition to defining the crisis in the country as one Dispute between the civilian and the military component.
Sudanese researcher Abbas Salih, in statements by Sudanese news agency Hawar, believes that the political crisis is deeper than the military-civilian dichotomy, and therefore any agreement based on this will lead to the reproduction of past experiences, and will also perpetuate the conflict , leading to the political vacuum.
He continued: “However, although the international quartet is seen as a mediator between the military component and the civilian groups, it will not be a guarantee of success or the expected agreement, especially as it is based on a simplistic vision that believes that it is sufficient to bring together the partners in power after the fall of Al-Bashir to end this crisis and it uses intimidation and intimidation.
And before the extraordinary decisions of Al-Burhan, the country lived in a period of transition within the Juba Accords (2020) since August 21, 2019, in which power would be shared between army, civilian forces and armed movements, ending with new elections in early 2024.
Sudan is struggling under the strain of difficult economic conditions with investment halts, mounting debt burdens and cuts in development aid. Recently, the World Food Program warned that about a third of Sudanese are food insecure.
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